The effect of incomplete information on the term structure of interest rates is examined in the framework of a pure exchange economy under uncertainty. When the growth rate of the aggregate endowment is known, the term structure is flat and deterministic. When agents do not observe the...

We examine the effect of demographic shifts on asset prices in an overlapping generations model with endogenous population dynamics. We establish a robust inverse relationship between returns and the old dependency ratio. We document the absence of a simple monotonic relationship between asset...

The effect of incomplete information on the term structure of interest rates is examined in the framework of a pure exchange economy under uncertainty. When the growth rate of the aggregate endowment is known, the term structure is flat and deterministic. When agents do not observe the...

We examine the effect of demographic shifts on asset prices in an overlapping generations model with endogenous population dynamics. We establish a robust inverse relationship between returns and the old dependency ratio. We document the absence of a simple monotonic relationship between asset...

Foster and Hart proposed an operational measure of riskiness for discrete random variables. We show that their defining equation has no solution for many common continuous distributions. We show how to extend consistently the definition of riskiness to continuous random variables. For many...

Knightian uncertainty leads naturally to nonlinear expectations. We introduce a corresponding equilibrium concept with sublinear prices and establish their existence. In general, such equilibria lead to Pareto inefficiency and coincide with Arrow-Debreu equilibria only if the values of net...

Foster and Hart propose a measure of riskiness for discrete random variables. Their defining equation has no solution for many common continuous distributions. We show how to extend consistently the definition of riskiness to continuous random variables. For many continuous random variables, the...

This paper develops a general theory of irreversible investment of a single firm that chooses a dynamic capacity expansion plan in an uncertain environment. The model is set up free of any distributional or any parametric assumptions and hence encompasses all the existing models. As the first...

We develop a theory of optimal stopping problems under ambiguity in continuous time. Using results from (backward) stochastic calculus, we characterize the value function as the smallest (nonlinear) supermartingale dominating the payoff process. For Markovian models, we derive an adjusted...

We consider optimal stopping problems for ambiguity averse decision makers with multiple priors. In general, backward induction fails. If, however, the class of priors is time-consistent, we establish a generalization of the classical theory of optimal stopping. To this end, we develop first...