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Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons

Fornari, Fabio; Lemke, Wolfgang - 2010

We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any point in time, the ProbVAR allows to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605301

Unconventional monetary policy and the great recession - Estimating the impact of a compression in the yield spread at the zero lower bound

Baumeister, Christiane; Benati, Luca - 2010

We explore the macroeconomic impact of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 via a Bayesian time-varying parameter structural VAR. We identify a ‘pure’ spread shock which, leaving the short-term rate unchanged by construction,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605304

Dancing together at arm’s length? – The interaction of central banks with governments in the G7

Bodea, Cristina; Huemer, Stefan - 2010

Central bank independence is a common feature in advanced economies. Delegation of monetary policy to an independent central bank with a clear mandate for price stability has proven to be successful in keeping a check on inflation and providing a trusted currency. However, it is also a fact that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606272

Finance and the chemical industry

Da Rin, Marco - 1997

The paper provides an overview of the financial history of the chemical industry since its inception in the latter half of the nineteenth century in four major countries: Britain, Germany, Japan, and the United States. The chemical industry is particularly intriguing from the point of view of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011608335

The hiring and employment of older workers in Germany: a comparative perspective

Heywood, John S.; Jirjahn, Uwe - In: Journal for Labour Market Research 49 (2016) 4, pp. 349-366

This paper focuses on the German labor market for older workers. It does so in comparison with other countries and with a unique focus on the role of employer incentives for retaining and hiring older workers. It argues that while employment of older German workers has improved due to changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011650813

How Do the Elderly in Taiwan Fare Cross-Nationally? Evidence from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) Project

Smeeding, Timothy Michael; Saunders, Peter - 1998

This paper uses microdata from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) to estimate and compare four dimensions of the well-being of the aged in Taiwan and eight other countries - the United States, Japan, Australia, Poland, Finland, Germany, Hungary and Canada. Together, these nine countries cover a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011652909

The impact of intergenerational transfers on household wealth inequality in Japan and the United States

Niimi, Yoko; Horioka, Charles - 2017

To help shed light on the implications of intergenerational transfers for wealth inequality, this paper uses data for Japan and the United States to examine whether individuals who receive intergenerational transfers from their parents are more likely to leave bequests to their children than...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011688678

Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital

Marx, Magali; Mojon, Benoît; Velde, François R. - 2018

Risk-free rates have been falling since the 1980s while the return on capital has not. We analyze these trends in a calibrated OLG model with recursive preferences, designed to encompass many of the "usual suspects" cited in the debate on secular stagnation. Declining labor force and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030344

Growth and Savings in USA and Japan

Laski, Kazimierz; Römisch, Roman - 2001

growth and private savings in the USA and in Japan between 1960 and 2000 is investigated in the paper. The results of the … analysis of the period 1996-2000 are of special interest. In the USA a sharp decline of the private savings ratio helped to … almost stagnating GDP although the NPCE term increased rather substantially. These results prove that spendthrift in the USA …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012099845

An examination of Malaysia's structural breaks vis-à-vis Japan and the USA

Murad, Md. Wahid; Shoeb-Ur-Rahman, Muhammad; Alam, Mahmudul - In: Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences (PJCSS) 6 (2012) 2, pp. 231-241

two trading partners, namely the USA and Japan in 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. It also discusses the implications of … USA and Malaysia does not have any structural break both in respect of GNI and GDP. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011938312