This document gives a detailed account of the current version of the Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM). It describes the main building blocks, presents the forecast performance of the model and, finally, it illustrates the responses to the most important shocks the Hungarian economy may...

The paper revises the previous author’s estimates of the medium-term evolution of the Romanian economy. It is organized in three chapters. The first examines the most important crisis and post-crisis problems of Romania. The analysis is developed preponderantly from a structural point of view....

One potential negative impact of the EU accession of Central European economies could be unemployment hysteresis working through long-term unemployment (LTU). In this paper we explore the mechanisms of LTU by providing a detailed description of the recent rise in Czech LTU following a domestic...

We characterize the balanced growth path of the basic neoclassical growth economy using standard, almost linear numerical solution methods, as well as the parameterized expectations approach, which preserves the nonlinearity in the model. We also apply the same methods after adding indivisible...

It is generally believed that fiscal consolidations should occur prior to a country's admission to the European Monetary Union (EMU). This paper argues that the fiscal Maastricht Criteria require badly timed, costly adjustments while not guaranteeing sustained fiscal restraint. An effective...

We suggest that the real exchange rate between the major currencies in the post-Bretton Woods period can be described by a stationary, two state Markov switching AR(1) model. Based on the forecast performance, both in-sample and out-of-sample, we find that this model out-performs two competing...