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The effects of aging population on the sustainability of fiscal policy
Puhakka, Mikko - Suomen Pankki - 2005
We study the effects of aging population on the sustainability of fiscal policy in overlapping generations models with government debt and a pay-as-you-go pension system. The smaller the population growth rate, the lower the maximum sustainable level of deficits. When the utility function is of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190757
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The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis
Baum, Anja; Koester, Gerrit B. - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2011
Does the state of the business cycle matter for the effects of fiscal policy shocks on GDP? This study analyses quarterly German data from 1976 to 2009 in a threshold SVAR, expanding the SVAR approach by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). In a linear benchmark SVAR, the analysis finds that hiking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009372153
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Fiscal Transparency and Procyclical Fiscal Policy
Andersen, Asger Lau; Nielsen, Lasse Holbøll Westh - Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), Økonomisk Institut - 2010
This paper examines why fiscal policy is procyclical in developing as well as developed countries. We introduce the concept of fiscal transparency into a model of retrospective voting, in which a political agency problem between voters and politicians generates a procyclical bias in government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008512970
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The macroeconomics of social pacts
Nicola, Acocella; Giovanni, Di Bartolomeo; Patrizio, Tirelli - Department of Communication, University of Teramo - 2007
In this paper we analyze macroeconomic interactions between trade unions, the central bank and the fiscal policymaker …. We explicitly model unions’ concern for public expenditure, paving the way for an analysis of the potential gains from … cooperation between the fiscal policymaker and the unions, i.e. the so-called corporatist or social pacts that have characterized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005590565
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Indeterminacy under input-specific externalities and implications for fiscal policy.
Seegmuller, Thomas - Maison des Sciences Économiques, Université Paris 1 … - 2006
In this paper, we introduce input-specific externalities in a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households and a finance constraint (Woodford (1986)). In contrast to existing papers, average labor and capital have not a positive impact on the total productivity of factors, but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005220174
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Science and Ideology in Economic, Political and Social Thought
Hillinger, Claude - In: Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 2 (2008), pp. 1-70
This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005082940
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Science and ideology in economic, political and social thought
Hillinger, Claude - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2007
This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083341
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Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter
Maravall, Agustín; Río, Ana del - Banco de España - 2007
Maravall and del Río (2001), analized the time aggregation properties of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, which decomposes a time series into trend and cycle, for the case of annual, quarterly, and monthly data, and showed that aggregation of the disaggregate component cannot be obtained as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022260
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Bayesian Fan Charts for U.K. Inflation: Forecasting and Sources of Uncertainty in an Evolving Monetary System
Cogley, Timothy; Morozov, Sergei; Sargent, Thomas J. - Center for Financial Studies - 2003
We estimate a Bayesian vector autoregression for the U.K. with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities. We use it to characterize posterior densities for several objects that are useful for designing and evaluating monetary policy, including local approximations to the mean,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022410
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The Role of Expectations in Economic Fluctuations and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy
Jin, Hehui; Motolese, Maurizio - Center for Financial Studies - 2003
monetary policy. Since expectations affect demand, our theory shows economic fluctuations are mostly driven by varying demand …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022413