In a dynamic stochastic exchange economy where, due to beliefs heterogeneity, agents engage in speculative trade, I investigate the Market Selection Hypothesis that speculation rewards the agent with the most accurate beliefs. Assuming that agents maximize Epstein-Zin preferences and that...

The approximate agents' wealth and price invariant densities of the prediction market model presented in Kets et al.(2014) is derived using the Fokker-Planck equation of the associated continuous-time jump process. We show that the approximation obtained from the evolution of log-wealth...

We investigate market selection and bet pricing in a simple Arrow security economy which we show is equivalent to the repeated prediction market models studied in the literature. We derive the condition for long run survival of more than one agent (the crowd) and quantify the information content...

In this paper, we examine an exchange economy with a financial market composed of three assets: a share of a stock, an European call option written on the stock, and a riskless bond. The financial market is assumed to be incomplete and the option is not a redundant asset. In such a case the...

We consider an exchange economy with heterogeneous agents and multiple assets and investigate the coupled dynamics of assets' prices and agents' wealth. We assume that agents have heterogeneous beliefs and invest on each asset a fraction of wealth proportional to its expected dividends. Our main...

A central conjecture of behavioural finance is that arbitrage opportunities appear as a result of systematic irrational investment behaviour and persist since real-world arbitrage trades actually involve costs and risks due to market frictions and non-fundamental risk. This paper shows that the...

We study consumption-portfolio and asset pricing frameworks with recursive preferences and unspanned risk. We show that in both cases, portfolio choice and asset pricing, the value function of the investor/representative agent can be characterized by a specific semilinear partial differential...

This paper studies whether, and to what extent, trading in an incomplete competitive market rewards the CAPM portfolio rule over alternative rules. We find that, if a mean-variance trader faces an agent who invests in each asset proportionally to expected relative payoffs, in the long-run only...

In this paper we study the effects of financial integration on risk-sharing. Conventional macroeconomic theory suggests that the integration of financial markets improves welfare. In contrast to the literature we assume that households have heterogeneous beliefs. Because of the differences in...

We study a dynamic general equilibrium model with costly-to-short stocks and heterogeneous beliefs. The closed-form solution to the model shows that costly short sales drive a wedge between the valuation of assets that promise identical cash flows but are subject to different trading...