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We investigate default probabilities and default correlations of Merton-type credit portfolio models in stress scenarios where a common risk factor is truncated. The analysis is performed in the class of elliptical distributions, a family of light-tailed to heavy-tailed distributions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056110
We use a vector error correction model to study the long-term relationship between aggregate expected default frequency and the macroeconomic development, i.e. CPI, industry production and short-term interest rate. The model is used to forecast the median expected default frequency of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014220615
Данная часть завершает серию консультационных публикаций Деана Фантаццини на тему «Эконометрический анализ финансовых данных в задачах управления риском». В...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121134
Во 2-м номере нашего журнала за 2008 г. была начата серия консультационных публикаций Деана Фантаццини, посвященных эконометрическому анализу финансовых данных в...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121135
Журнал продолжает публикацию консультации Дйана Фантаццини, посвященной эконометрическому анализу финансовых данных в задачах управления риском. В данном...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121137
The main goal of this paper is to better understand the behavior of credit spreads in the past and the potential risk of unexpected future credit spread changes. One important consideration to note regarding credit spreads is the fact that bond spreads contain a liquidity premium, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105185
We use a vector error correction model to study the long-term relationship between aggregate expected default frequency and the macroeconomic development, i.e. CPI, industry production and short-term interest rate. The model is used to forecast the median expected default frequency of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003618542
We consider an optimal risk-sensitive portfolio allocation problem accounting for the possibility of cascading defaults. Default events have an impact on the distress state of the surviving stocks in the portfolio. We study the recursive system of non-Lipschitz quasi-linear parabolic HJB-PDEs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012969492
Empirical studies on credit spread determinants are predicated on the presence of a single-regime over the entire sample period and thus find limited explanatory power. We show that a single regime model hides the fact that the explanatory variables take on different loadings across changing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012710798
Based on the works of Brockman and Turtle (2003) and Giesecke (2004), we propose in this study a hybrid barrier option model to explain observed credit spreads. It is free of problems with the structural model which underprescribed credit spreads for investment grade corporate bonds and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148676