The locomotive theory is likely to come up again for discussion at the next summit of the major industrial nations in Bonn in July. What are the basic ideas behind this theory? And what are its chances of success if adopted as an economic policy?

This paper first reviews a number of stylised facts concerning OECD country business cycles over the past four decades. In general, the amplitude of business cycles has fallen, driven mainly by declining fluctuations of domestic demand. As a result, international divergencies of cyclical...