This paper re-examines the role of real supply shocks in international business cycles. In contrast to previous studies, we extend the concept of supply shocks beyond the productivity shock towards labor supply shocks. Our analysis simultaneously identifies five real and nominal disturbances in...

Steinsson (2008) shows that real shocks that affect the New Keynesian Phillips curve explain the behavior of the real exchange rate in a sticky-price business cycle model. This paper reveals that these shocks are important for the volatility of the real exchange rate in the data. In a structural...

Recent empirical and theoretical literature on the impact of real exchange rate devaluations on economic performance questions the traditional expansionary effect generated within standard Mundell-Fleming models. Contractionary devaluations may arise when firms face maturity or currency...

The objective of this paper is to assess whether the level of unionization and the rigidity of the exchange rate affected wages and monetary policy in SEE and CIS during the ongoing economic crisis. Towards that end, a New Keynesian model with price and wage rigidities is used. The model is...

Option prices seem to behave in ways inconsistent with the Black-Scholes model. Implied volatility varies with the strike price in a parabolic shape that is often called the volatility 'smile.' My objective in this paper is to identify implied probability distributions that might explain this...

This paper develops a two-block Structural Vector Autoregression featuring time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to estimate the changing spillover of global oil shocks into the Maltese economy during the period that goes from January 2008 to March 2022. The model is estimated by...

The aim of this paper is to explore the evolution of real exchange rate dynamics over time. We use a time-varying structural vector autoregression to investigate the role of demand, supply and nominal shocks and consider their impact on, and contribution to fluctuations in, the real exchange...

In this paper we undertake an out-of-sample evaluation of the ability of a model to forecast the Swedish Krona’s real and nominal effective exchange rate, using a cointegrating relation between the real exchange rate, relative output, terms of trade and net foreign assets (or alternatively the...

The paper analyzes the sources of exchange rate movements in emerging economies in the context of monetary tapering by the Federal Reserve. A structural vector autoregression framework with a long-run restriction is used to decompose the movements of nominal ex-change rates into two components:...

We follow the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach by Clark and MacDonald (1998) to derive equilibrium real effective exchange rates and currency misalignments for the US and its 16 major trading partners. We apply cointegration and panel cointegration techniques to derive fully...