This paper provides a general framework to model the evolutions of forecasts generated by multiple decision makers who forecast demand for the same product. We also model the evolutions of forecasts when decision makers have asymmetric demand information and refer to it as the Martingale Model...

Mathematical forecasting approaches can lead to reliable demand forecast in some environments by extrapolating regular patterns in time-series. However, unpredictable events that do not appear in historical data can reduce the usefulness of mathematical forecasts for demand planning purposes....