We derive stock returns for firms producing nonrenewable commodities by employing the investment-based asset pricing approach. By identifying the appropriate time-varying discount rate the investment-based approach allows an alternative test of the Hotelling Valuation Principle. The empirical...

The futures curve of an aggregate commodity portfolio is time-varying and changes from upward (contango) to downward sloping (backwardation) which implies negative or positive expected returns. The basis arises as a natural fundamental to predict commodity returns. However, the empirical...

Exploring the information contained in Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Commitments of Traders (COT) reports, this analysis investigates the forecasting ability of investor sentiment index in three major precious metal futures markets, namely, Gold, Silver, and Platinum. A strong...