-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases … prices, forecasts based on AR and ARMA models, and the no-change forecast. In addition, these VAR models have consistently … forecasters to interpret their oil price forecast in light of economic models and to evaluate its sensitivity to alternative …

This paper sheds light on the questions whether it is possible to generate an accurate forecast of the real price of … oil and how it can be improved using forecast combinations. For this reason, my work will investigate the out …

We study the out-of-sample predictability of the real price of crude oil using forecast combinations constructed from …-change forecast at horizons ranging from 1 to 24 months with statistically significant MSFE reductions and directional accuracy. In …