This study concentrates on the signal approach for Kazakhstan. It focuses on the properties of individual indicators prior to observed currency crises. The indicators are used to build composite indicators. An advanced approach uses principal components analysis for the construction of composite...

In the summer and at the end of the year, the Ifo Institute publishes its detailed economic forecasts for Germany. In the spring and the autumn, it participates in the Joint Economic Forecast of the six German economic research institutes. - Economic forecasts are a means to assess future...

The Ifo Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate - business situation and business expectations - was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the Ifo Business Cycle...

Business cycle indicators are used to assess the economic situation of countries or regions. They are closely watched by the public, but are not easy to interpret. Does a current movement of the indicator signal a turning point or not? With the help of Markov Switching Models movements of...

Business cycle indicators are important instruments for monitoring economic development. When employing indicators one usually relies on a sound statistical database. This paper deals with indicator development in a sparse data situation. Indicator building is merged with temporal...

The IFO Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate – business situation and business expectations – was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the IFO Business...

Business cycle indicators are important instruments for monitoring economic development. When employing indicators one usually relies on a sound statistical database. This paper deals with indicator development in a sparse data situation. Indicator building is merged with temporal...