Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the in ation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement,...

Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement,...

This paper analyzes the inflation expectation formation empirically for German consumers. The expectation formation process is analyzed for a representative consumer and for different demographic groups. The results indicate that German consumers are a relatively homogeneous group. There are...