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How accurate are government forecasts of economic fundamentals? : the case of Taiwan

Chang, Chia-Lin; Franses, Philip Hans; McAleer, Michael - 2010

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008670005

Are forecast updates progressive?

Chang, Chia-Lin; Franses, Philip Hans; McAleer, Michael - 2010

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008670046

Combining non-replicable forecasts

Chang, Chia-Lin; Franses, Philip Hans; McAleer, Michael - 2010 - Rev.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008689066

Evaluating combined non-replicable forecasts

Chang, Chia-Lin; Franses, Philip Hans; McAleer, Michael - 2010 - Rev.

Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates an expert’s...