I present a sticky-wage model of exchange rate pass-through with heterogeneous producers and endogenous markups. The model shows that low levels of exchange rate pass-through to firm- and aggregate-level import prices coexist with large in trade flows. After an exchange rate shock, aggregate...

This paper provides simple estimators for binary choice models with endogenous or mismeasured regressors. Unlike control function methods, which are generally only valid when endogenous regressors are continuous, the estimators proposed here can be used with limited, censored, continuous, or...

We present evidence of the impact of input and output trade liberalization on establishment-level job flows. Using a longitudinal database containing the universe of manufacturing establishments in California from 1992 to 2004, we find that a decline in input or output trade costs causes job...

Many empirical applications of regression discontinuity (RD) models use a running variable that is rounded and hence is discrete, e.g., age in years, or birth weight in ounces. This paper shows that standard RD estimation using a rounded discrete running variable leads to inconsistent estimates...

Regression Discontinuity (RD) models identify local treatment effects by associating a discrete change in the mean outcome with a corresponding discrete change in the probability of treatment at a known threshold of a running variable. This paper shows that it is possible to identify the RD...

In regression discontinuity models, where the probability of treatment jumps discretely when a running variable crosses a threshold, an average treatment effect can be nonparametrically identified. We show that the derivative of this treatment effect with respect to the threshold is also...

We construct a model of conflict and trade to study the consequences of interstate disputes over contested resources (land, oil, water or other resources) for arming, welfare and trade flows. Different trade regimes imply different costs of such disputes in terms of arming. Depending on world...

In Greece and other countries of the eurozone there are a number of misconceptions about the debt crisis. I argue against seven of such misconceptions (or, myths) about the effects of default, the primary cause of the crisis, the likely effects of an exit from the eurozone, the bargaining power...

There is substantial agreement in the monetary policy literature over the effects of exogenous monetary policy shocks. The shocks that are investigated, however, almost exclusively represent unanticipated changes in policy, which surprise the private sector and which are typically found to have...

In this paper, we explore two factors that can limit arming and, more generally, the costs of enforcement within and across states: governance or the formal organizations and institutions that help define and enforce property rights, and norms, or the informal arrangements in settling potential...