This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are derived by optimally pooling the information contained in national indicator series. Following the ideas of predictive modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by...

The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models...

This paper evaluates short-term forecasts of real GDP in the Euro area derived from the CESifo Economic Climate indicator (WES) in terms of forecast accuracy. We compare the forecast properties of the WES with those of monthly composite indicators. Considering the WES is interesting because (i)...

The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models...

Given the relatively low computational effort involved, vector autoregressive (VAR)models are frequently used for macroeconomic forecasting purposes. However, the usuallylimited number of observations obliges the researcher to focus on a relatively smallset of key variables, possibly discarding...

This paper explores the role of oil for the Kazakh economy. In order to assess thedegree of volatility the oil price features, it, firstly, discusses the literature on oil price behaviour. Secondly, it analyzes the effect of oil price declines on key macroeconomicvariables such as real GDP,...

Since the seminal article of Bates and Granger (1969), a large number of theoretical and empirical studies have shown that pooling different forecasts of the same event tends to outperform individual forecasts in terms of forecast accuracy. However, the results remain heterogenous regarding the...