According to the Fisher hypothesis, the nominal interest rate is equal to the real interest rate, plus expected inflation. Results concerning the empirical validity of this hypothesis are not unanimous. These contradictions may be due to the fact that the usual concept of cointegration is too...

The aim of this paper is to gauge quantitatively the macroeconomic impact of EMU membership. Building on the Global VAR framework designed by Pesaran et al. (2004), we want to shed light on the following important questions: What if the euro had never been launched? How would national outputs...

We revisit the evidence of the existence of a long-run link between financial intermediation and economic growth, by testing of cointegration between the growth rate of real GDP, control variables and three series reflecting financial intermediation. We consider a model with a factor structure...

We provide new estimations on aggregate consumption series in France using the framework of non-stationary threshold models. Most macroeconomists agree with the idea that, since the beginning of the seventies, the saving ratio has evolved irregularly. Such irregularities are usually interpreted...

This paper proposes a comparison of three nonlinear error-correction models to account for the asymmetric and slow adjustment dynamics of the Dollar-Sterling real exchange rate over a long period (1957-2002). We conclude that two NEC models adequately describe the nonlinear mean-reverting...