The purpose of this paper is to construct a model of exchange rate determination that is consistent with the stylized facts regarding the uncovered interest parity for short term and long term interest rates. This task is especially challenging because of the forward premium anomaly found for...

For non-atomic TU games nu satisfying suitable conditions, the core can be determined by computing appropriate derivatives of nu. Further, such computations yield one of two stark conclusions: either core(nu) is empty or it consists of a single measure that can be expressed explicitly in terms...

This paper considers the question of tacit collusion in repeated auctions with independent private values. McAfee and McMillan show that the extent of collusion is limited by the availability of transfers. If no transfers are possible, the private information of bidders precludes any collusive...

In this paper I review the contribution of real business cycles models to our understanding of economic fluctuations, and discuss open issues in business cycle research.

This paper models an agent in a three-period setting who does not update according to Bayes'Rule, and who is self-aware and anticipates her updating behavior when formulating plans. The agent is rational in the sense that her dynamic behavior is derived from a single stable preference order on a...

A very brief historical discussion of marriage, divorce, and out-of-wedlock births in England and France.

In this paper a pairwise comparison estimation procedure is proposed for the regression coefficients in a censored transformation model. The main advantage of the new estimator is that it can accommodate covariate dependent censoring without the requirement of smoothing parameters, trimming...

For the problem of adjudicating conflicting claims, a rule is consistent if the choice it makes for each problem is always in agreement with the choice it makes for each "reduced problem" obtained by imagining that some claimants leave with their awards and reassessing the situation from the...

We consider the problem of adjudicating conflicting claims. A rule to solve such problems is consistent if the choice it makes for each problem is always in agreement with the choice it makes for each "reduced problem" obtained by imagining that some claimants leave with their awards and...

This paper considers learning when the distinction between risk and ambiguity matters. It first describes thought experiments, dynamic variants of those provided by Ellsberg, that highlight a sense in which the Bayesian learning model is extreme - it models agents who are implausibly ambitious...