This Economic Letter is adapted from a speech by Janet L. Yellen, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, to the National Association for Business Economics in San Francisco, California, on September 10, 2007.

Speech to the San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Group, San Francisco, California, February 12, 2008. ; President Janet L. Yellen presented similar remarks to the Chartered Financial Analysts of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii, February 7, 2008

Speech to the National Association for Business Economics, San Francisco, California. September 10, 2007

Speech to the University of California San Diego Economics Roundtable, San Diego, California, July 7, 2008

Speech to the Chartered Financial Analysts of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii, February 7, 2008

Speech to Town Hall – Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, October 9, 2007

We start from the assertion that a useful monetary policy design should be founded on more realistic assumptions about what policymakers can know at the time when policy decisions have to be made. Since the Taylor rule - if used as an operational device - implies a forward looking behaviour, we...

This study presents an extension of the Gaussian process regression model for multiple-input multiple-output forecasting. This approach allows modelling the cross-dependencies between a given set of input variables and generating a vectorial prediction. Making use of the existing correlations in...

In this paper, we document the forecasting performance of estimated basic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and compare this to extended versions which consider alternative expectation formation assumptions and financial frictions. We also show how standard model features,...

A structural break is viewed as a permanent change in the parameter vector of a model. Using taxonomies of all sources of forecast errors for both conditional mean and conditional variance processes, we consider the impacts of breaks and their relevance in forecasting models: (a) where the...