We introduce an asset-allocation framework based on the active control of the value-at- risk of the portfolio. Within this framework, we compare two paradigms for making the allocation using neural networks. The first one uses the network to make a forecast of asset behavior, in conjunction with...

Metric-based methods, which use unlabeled data to detect gross differences in behavior away from the training points, have recently been introduced for model selection, often yielding very significant improvements over alternatives (including cross-validation). We introduce extensions that take...

To deal with the overfitting problems that occur when there are not enough examples compared to the number of input variables in supervised learning, traditional approaches are weight decay and greedy variable selection. An alternative that has recently started to attract attention is to keep...

We provide a formulation of stochastic volatility (SV) based on Gaussian process regression (GPR). Forecasting volatility out-of-sample, both simulation and empirical analyses show that our GPR-based stochastic volatility (GPSV) model clearly outperforms SV and GARCH benchmarks, especially at...

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between input and output of innovation in Dutch manufacturing using an unbalanced panel of enterprise data from five waves of the Community Innovation Survey during 1994-2004. We estimate by maximum likelihood a dynamic panel data bivariate tobit with...