CEE countries experience a catching up period in economic growth while preparing for accession to the European Union. In several countries we experience an expenditure boom arising either from exuberant expectations of consumers towards EU or EM or a fiscal deficit usually underpinned by an...

The model is an application of the precautionary consumer saving model to the external debt policy of a small open economy. Let us assume that the welfare criterion of macroeconomic policy is the utility function of a representative infinitely living dynasty. This approach is in line with the...

This paper provides a statistical analysis of the components of real exchange rate in Hungary for the period 1991-1996. The real exchange rate is decomposed into a tradable and a nontradable rate. The following main conclusions are valid: 1. The Balassa-Samuelson effect, which presumes a real...

This paper argues that the Phillips curve relationship is not sufficient to trace back the output gap, because the effect of excess demand is not symmetric across tradeable and non-tradeable sectors. In the non-tradeable sector, excess demand creates excess employment and inflation via the...

This paper argues that the Phillips curve relationship is not sufficient to trace back the output gap, because the effect of excess demand is not symmetric across tradeable and non-tradeable sectors. In the non-tradeable sector, excess demand creates excess employment and inflation via the...

This paper argues that the Phillips curve relationship is not sufficient to trace back the output gap, because the effect of excess demand is not symmetric across tradeable and non-tradeable sectors. In the non-tradeable sector, excess demand creates excess employment and inflation via the...

Decomposing output into trend and cyclical components is an uncertain exercise and depends on the method applied. It is an especially dubious task for countries undergoing large structural changes, such as transition countries. Despite their deficiencies, however, univariate detrending methods...