-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series …

story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

One of the most robust stylized facts in macroeconomics is the forecasting power of the term spread for future real … activity. The economic rationale for this forecasting power usually appeals to expectations of future interest rates, which … affect the slope of the term structure. In this paper, we propose a possible causal mechanism for the forecasting power of …