We discuss the finding that cross-sectional characteristic based models have yielded portfolios with higher excess monthly returns but lower risk than their arbitrage pricing theory counterparts in an analysis of equity returns of stocks listed on the JSE. Under the assumption of general...

Instrumental variables estimation can, in principle, avoid biases that ordinary least squares estimation suffers when explanatory variables are correlated with the disturbances. Finding appropriate instruments is a challenge. This paper uses seven recently published empirical papers to...

Hierarchical analysis is considered and a multilevel model is presented in order to explore causality, chance and complexity in financial economics. A coupled system of models is used to describe multilevel interactions, consistent with market data: the lowest level is occupied by agents...

In monetary Stock-Flow Consistent (SEC) models, accounting identities reduce the number of behavioral functions to avoid an overdetermined system of equations. We relax this restriction using a differential-algebraic equation framework of constrained dynamics. Agents exert forces the variables...

This paper takes stock of the ECB's macroeconometric modelling strategy by focusing on the models and applications used in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they...

This paper presents the updated macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising around 100 of the largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks' reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of...

This paper takes stock of the ECB's macroeconometric modelling strategy by focusing on the models and applications used in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they...

This paper presents the updated macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising around 100 of the largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks' reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of...

Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to generate independent series with short memory in volatility. Partial sums of there short memory series are formed and the volatilities of these partial sums are tested for long memory. Aggregating series with short memory valatilities results in indices...