Historical Statistics of the United States is the premier source of quantitative evidence on American economic, social, political, demographic, and institutional history. Introduced in 1949 as a time-series supplement to the Statistical Abstract of the United States, it has inspired similar...

We examine the causal dynamic relationship between economic policy uncertainty and economic activities, using a Local Projection model with external instruments. Based on the psychological theory of conviction narratives, we construct a Relative Sentiment Shift (RSS) index and use it as an...

This paper introduces Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Long Memory Stock Transaction Data of unknown underlying distribution. The moments with conditional heteroscedasticity have been discussed. In a Monte Carlo experiment, it was found that the QML estimator performs as well as CLS and...

This study compares and contrasts the multiple characterizations of mean reversion in financial time series as regards the restrictions they imply. This is accomplished by translating them into statements about an alternative measure, the "Average Crossing Time" or ACT. We argue that the ACT...

We develop a discrete-time affine stochastic volatility model with time-varying conditional skewness (SVS). Importantly, we disentangle the dynamics of conditional volatility and conditional skewness in a coherent way. Our approach allows current asset returns to be asymmetric conditional on...

We develop a discrete-time affine stochastic volatility model with time-varying conditional skewness (SVS). Importantly, we disentangle the dynamics of conditional volatility and conditional skewness in a coherent way. Our approach allows current asset returns to be asymmetric conditional on...

Three concepts: stochastic discount factors, multi-beta pricing and mean-variance efficiency, are at the core of modern empirical asset pricing. This chapter reviews these paradigms and the relations among them, concentrating on conditional asset-pricing models where lagged variables serve as...

We study structural models of stochastic discount factors and explore alternative methods of estimating such models using data on macroeconomic risk and asset returns. Particular attention is devoted to recursive utility models in which risk aversion can be modified without altering...

Expected returns and risk assessment are important issues when evaluating capital investment projects. We use VARX-MGARCH models and asset pricing theory to model the expected rate of return in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru for late 2006. The main objective of this paper is to present an...

This study compares and contrasts the multiple characterizations of mean reversion in financial time series as regards the restrictions they imply. This is accomplished by translating them into statements about an alternative measure, the "Average Crossing Time" or ACT. We argue that the ACT...