Bayes-Nets are a suitable means for probabilistic inference. Such nets are very restricted concerning the communicationlanguage with the user, however. MinREnt-inference in a conditional environment is a powerfulcounterpart to this concept. Here conditional expressions of high complexity instead...

Information is indispensable in preparing economic decisionspurposefully. In this paper knowledge is representedby a probability distribution. Knowledge acquisitionis realized by the principle of maximum entropywhich guarantees an unsophisticated expansion ofknowledge and provides an unbiased...

Efficient applications of expert systems to project risk management problemsare seldom, if not unusual. In this paper we overcome this lack by using the probabilisticexpert system shell SPIRIT. The rule-based shell’s power in conditioning, inference andreasoning under incomplete information...

In this contribution the frequently meaningless statementsin the relevant economy literature, about what is knowledge and whatis information, are overcome going back to the roots of information andcommunication theory. Information and entropy are defined preciselyand then the theoretical concept...

Probability distributions on a set of discrete variablesare a suitable means to represent knowledge about theirrespective mutual dependencies. When now thingsbecome evident such a distribution can be adapted tothe new situation and hence submitted to a soundinference process. Knowledge...

Die Repräsentation und Verarbei-tung unsicheren Wissens in einer mathematisch korrekten und berechenbaren Weise ist eines der zentralen Anliegen der Künstlichen Intelligenz. Am Beispiel der schon be-rühmt gewordenen Studentin Léa Sombé aus [27] zeigen wir in dieser Arbeit, wie subjektives,...

We present a probabilistic expert system permitting the acqusition and processing of uncertain rules. A joint distribution is computed which fits the constraints given by the rules best in an information theoretic sense. So no external (in-)dependencies between the variables are assumed. The...