Time series models are often fitted to the data without preliminary checks for stability of the mean and variance, conditions that may not hold in much economic and financial data, particularly over long periods. Ignoring such shifts may result in fitting models with spurious dynamics that lead...

This paper offers an approach to time series modeling that attempts to reconcile classical and Bayesian methods. The central idea put forward to achieve this reconciliation is that the Bayesian approach relies implicitly on a frame of reference for the data generating mechanism that is quite...

Fisher's equation for the determination of the real rate of interest is studied from a fresh econometric perspective. Some new methods of data description for nonstationary time series are introduced. The methods provide a nonparametric mechanism for modelling the spatial densities of a time...

It is well known that unit root limit distributions are sensitive to initial conditions in the distant past. If the distant past initialization is extended to the infinite past, the initial condition dominates the limit theory producing a faster rate of convergence, a limiting Cauchy...

In time series regression with nonparametrically autocorrelated errors, it is now standard empirical practice to construct confidence intervals for regression coefficients on the basis of nonparametrically studentized t-statistics. The standard error used in the studentization is typically...

This paper motivates and introduces a two-stage method for estimating diffusion processes based on discretely sampled observations. In the first stage we make use of the feasible central limit theory for realized volatility, as recently developed in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2002), to...

Semiparametric estimation of the memory parameter is studied in models of fractional integration in the nonstationary case, and some new representation theory for the discrete Fourier transform of a fractional process is used to assist in the analysis. A limit theory is developed for an...