In this paper we have suggested a new methodology to estimate the probability of default of a country as a function of other macroeconomics variables. Such methodology is based in the valuation of the prices in the secondary market of bonds issued by debtor countries. We have chosen the Brady...

Few ideas and activities have received as hyperbolic praise as those presented by Hernando de Soto on informality. Nobel prizes in economics, presidents of various countries, important magazines, and multilateral organizations have endorsed this author’s impulse to the official...

Wealth and poverty, progress and regress are the type of realities usually related on moral grounds. Scientifically serious causal economic relations are not so easy to find. Moral criteria does not require scientific proof of causality. But this search for causal links is also important to...

Quarterly time series data from Canada and the Canadian provinces for the period 1976:1-2005:3 are examined to determine if the unemployment rates in the Canadian provinces are converging to the national rate of unemployment. Firstly, we check for existence of stochastic convergence using recent...

This paper analyzes and employs two versions of the Functional Central Limit Theorem within the framework of a unit root with a structural break. Initial attention is focused on the probabilistic structure of the time series to be considered. Later, attention is placed on the asymptotic theory...

Under inflation targeting and other related monetary policy regimes, the identication of non-transitory inflation and forecasts about future inflation constitute key ingredients for monetary policy decisions. In practice, central banks perform these tasks using so-called "core inflation...

Some stylized facts for foreign exchange and stock market returns are explored using statistical methods. Formal statistics for testing presence of autocorrelation, asymmetry, and other deviations from normality are applied to these ?nancial returns. Dynamic correlations and di¤erent kernel...

The core of the paper analyses the State functionings in the process of providing basic social services (education, health, identity documents, etc.) in the provinces of Peru. The concept “Density of the State” is designed to elaborate an index (SDI) to quantify State´s territorial...

I use three non-linear econometric models to identify and analyze business cycles in the Peruvian economy for the period 1980:1-2008:4. The models are the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model suggested by Teräsvirta (1994), the extended version of the Markov-Switching model proposed by...