Forecasts for the current year that are made sometime during the current year are not true annual forecasts because they include already known information for the early part of the year. The current methodology that evaluates these ¡°forecasts¡± does not take into account the known...

In this paper we jointly evaluate the Federal Reserve staff forecasts of U.S. real output growth and the inflation rate assuming the forecasts are to be used as inputs for the Taylor rule. Our simple methodology generates “policy forecast errors” which have a direct interpretation for the...

It is generally believed that the recession of 2007-2009 was not foreseen by business economists. Is this perceived view accurate? We explore this issue by examining business economists’ published statements about economic conditions. We compare these qualitative forecasts with the Beige Book....

In this paper we examine the quality of the initial estimates of headline GDP and 10 major components of both real and nominal U.S. GDP. We ask a number of questions about various characteristics of the differences between the initial estimates available one month after the end of the quarter to...

Purpose – The purpose of this research study is to investigate the application of the resource‐based view to a construct of organizational culture, doing so in the context of the generic models of business strategy. Design/methodology/approach – The original research underlying this paper...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential impact of Arab national culture (NC) on the style of organizational culture (OC) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Design/methodology/approach – An empirical study that uses a conceptual framework which is well‐grounded in...

This paper reconciles contradictory findings obtained from forecast evaluations: the existence of systematic errors and the failure to reject rationality in the presence of such errors. Systematic errors in one economic state may offset the opposite types of errors in the other state such that...

We examine the relative improvement in forecasting accuracy of the Federal Reserve (Greenbook forecasts) and private-sector forecasts (the Survey of Professional Forecasters and Blue Chip Economic Indicators) for inflation. Previous research by Romer and Romer (2000), and Sims (2002) shows that...