The economic situation in the euro area continues to be weak. In the course of 2003, real GDP has only stagnated. Several factors prevented the expected recovery to materialize. Last year’s collapse of stock prices dampened activity, so did the high oil price. In addition, the uncertainty in...

Economic activity in the euro area has weakened since last summer. In the second half of 2002, real GDP increased at an annualized rate of around 1 percent only. Economy-wide capacity utilization has further declined and the situation on labor markets has worsened. The increase in consumer...

The cyclical situation at the beginning of the European Monetary Union (EMU) is favorable: The upswing in Euroland has firmed, unemployment is going down, and inflation is low. However, economic growth outside the new currency area has weakened significantly during 1998, and fears are mounting...

The decision on EMU strongly affects the course of monetary and fiscal policies in 1997 and especially in 1998. We assume that the monetary union will start in January 1, 1999 with a sizable number of participating countries. Once the decision on the members is made in the spring of 1998, any...

The recovery in Euroland has started at the beginning of this year but it has remained rather moderate. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of less than 1½ percent during the first half of 2002. Capacity utilization has declined further and unemployment continued to go up. While exports have...

The economic recovery in the euro area has accelerated in the course of 2004. During the first two quarters, real GDP rose at an annual rate of slightly over 2 percent, after about 1½ percent in the second half of 2003. For the first time since 2001, overall capacity utilization increased....

The economy in the euro area has turned around. While GDP stagnated during the second half of 2001, there are more and more signs that output will increase considerably in the first half of this year. All in all, the slowdown has not been very pronounced. One indication for this is that in 2001,...

The stock market crash of October 1987 was not followed by the widely-feared recession in the world economy. Most forecasts have been revised upward again, and many are even more favorable than before the crash. This is also the case for Western European countries. However, beyond the very short...

Economic activity in the euro area is recovering. In the second half of 2003, real GDP grew at an annualized rate of roughly 1½ percent. In contrast with other large industrialized countries, economy-wide capacity utilization has not yet increased. Private consumption has remained the major...

Stage Three of the European Monetary Union (EMU) will start on January 1, 1999. The new currency area, for which the name "Euroland" has been coined, will comprise 11 countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. The...