In this paper we propose tests for hypotheses regarding the parameters of the deterministictrend function of a univariate time series. The tests do not require knowledge of the form ofserial correlation in the data and they are robust to strong serial correlation. The data cancontain a unit root...

UK government policy encourages mothers of young children in low-income families to enter or return to work, via tax credit subsidies and support for childcare. Maternal employment is seen a central plank in the campaign against child poverty, both because it raises income immediately and...

Our paper introduces a new estimation method for arbitrary temporal heterogeneityin panel data models. The paper provides a semiparametric method for estimatinggeneral patterns of cross-sectional specific time trends. The methods proposed in thepaper are related to principal component analysis...

This paper analyzes how the OECD revises potential output (PO) estimates after recessions. We show that downward revisions are substantial and mostly driven by supply shocks while PO estimates do not significantly react to demand shocks. In addition, revisions are partly caused by avoidable...