Many economic outcomes appear to be influenced by habit or commitment, giving rise to persistence. In cases where the decision is binary and persistent, the aggregation of individual time series can result in a fractionally integrated process for the aggregate data. Certain television programmes...

Many economic outcomes appear to be influenced by habit or commitment, giving rise to persistence. In cases where the decision is binary and persistent, the aggregation of individual time series can result in a fractionally integrated process for the aggregate data. Certain television programmes...

This paper extends the results of Byers, Davidson and Peel (1997) on long memory in support for the Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK using longer samples and additional poll series. It finds continuing support for the ARFIMA(0,d,0) model though with somewhat smaller values of the long...

Recent research by Gu and Wu (2003) and Basu and Markov (2004) suggests that the well-known optimism bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts is attributable to analysts minimizing symmetric, linear loss functions when the distribution of forecast errors is skewed. An alternative explanation for...

Recent research by Gu and Wu (2003) and Basu and Markov (2004) suggests that the well-known optimism bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts is attributable to analysts minimizing symmetric, linear loss functions when the distribution of forecast errors is skewed. An alternative explanation for...

Whilst Cumulative Prospect theory (CPT) provides an explanation of gambling on longshots at actuarially unfair odds, it cannot explain why people might bet on more favoured outcomes. This paper shows that this is explicable if the degree of loss aversion experienced by the agent is reduced for...

We investigate the bootstrapped size and power properties of five long memory tests, including the modified R/S, KPSS and GPH tests. In small samples, the moving block bootstrap controls the empirical size of the tests. However, for these sample sizes, the power of bootstrapped tests against...

Regression and neural network models of wage determination are constructed where the explanatory variables include detailed information about skills. People skills, strategic skills, and IT skills all carry strong and significant wage premia; problem-solving skills (surprisingly) and physical...

The institutional framework for the funding of higher education in the UK is discussed. In England, much of the financial support for teaching and learning, especially of 'home and EU' undergraduates, is channelled through the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE). HEFCE operates...