We use the Cox process (or a doubly stochastic Poisson process) to model the claim arrival process for catastrophic events. The shot noise process is used for the claim intensity function within the Cox process. The Cox process with shot noise intensity is examined by piecewise deterministic...

This paper proposes an unobserved fundamental component of volatility as a measure of risk. This concept of fundamental volatility may be more meaningful than the usual measures of volatility for market regulators. Fundamental volatility can be obtained using a stochastic volatility model, which...

This paper extends the genetic programming techniques developed in Neely, Weller and Dittmar (1997) to show that technical trading rules can make use of information about U.S. foreign exchange intervention to improve their out-of-sample profitability for two of four exchange rates. Rules tend to...

This paper argues that inferring long-horizon asset-return predictability from the properties of vector autoregressive (VAR) models on relatively short spans of data is potentially unreliable. We illustrate the problems that can arise by re-examining the findings of Bekaert and Hodrick (1992),...

The present work studies the application of two group discriminant analysis in the field of credit scoring. The view here given provides a completely different approach to how this problem is usually targeted. Credit scoring is widely used among financial institutions and is performed in a...

We consider the estimation of the location of the pole and memory parameter, λ0 and α respectively, of covariance stationary linear processes whose spectral density function f(λ) satisfies f(λ) ∼ C|λ − λ0|−α in a neighbourhood of λ0. We define a consistent estimator of λ0 and...

Consumers are often confronted with choices between options that vary in their short and long term benefit, or what we call immediate and delayed utility. This paper describes the marketing implications of what economists and psychologists have learned about how consumers make these choices. The...

Asymptotic inference in nonlinear vector error correction models (VECM) that exhibit regime-specific short-run dynamics is nonstandard and complicated. This paper contributes the literature in several important ways. First, we establish the consistency of the least squares estimator of the...

This paper is concerned with semiparametric estimation of a threshold binary response model. The estimation method considered in the paper is semiparametric since the parameters for a regression function are finite-dimensional, while allowing for heteroskedasticity of unknown form. In...

For linear processes, semiparametric estimation of the memory parameter, based on the log-periodogram and local Whittle estimators, has been exhaustively examined and their properties are well established. However, except for some specific cases, little is known about the estimation of the...