The recent surge in consumer prices beginning in 2021 has been attributed by government officials to supply chain disruptions, war in Ukraine, the coronavirus pandemic, and corporate greed. Between 2008Q4 and 2021Q1 the consumer price index (CPI) increased 32 percent from about 211 to 280....

This paper examines the effect of changes in Federal Reserve assets and consumer prices during the stewardship of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Since his appointment in February 2018 until July 2022, the average monthly increase in consumer prices was 0.31 percent—more than 2.4 times...

This paper studies the network structure and fragmentation of the Argentine interbank market. Both the unsecured (CALL) and the secured (REPO) markets are examined. The aim of this study is to understand their actual fragmentation, as well as its potential implications for monetary policy and...

The European Central Bank's asset purchase programs, while intended to stabilize the economy, may have unintended side effects on financial stability. This paper aims at gauging the effects on financial markets, the banking sector, and lending to non-financial firms. Using a structural vector...

What are the main narratives among the public regarding the future course of the Colombian economy, and how do they compare to those of the Central Bank of Colombia? Macroeconomic forecasts collected through surveys mainly assess observable variables; therefore, they offer little understanding...

The European Central Bank (ECB) took many measures to combat the eurozone's rolling financial crisis. For providing desperately scarce dollars to eurozone banks, the ECB relied on the U.S. Federal Reserve. Using a novel econometric framework, we identify financial markets' response to the...

Central bank announcements move financial markets. The response of inflation and growth expectations, on the other hand, is often small or even counterintuitive. Based on tick-by-tick futures prices on bonds and stock prices, I confirm these seemingly puzzling results for the euro area and...

Central bank announcements have strong effects on interest rates, but small or even counterintuitive effects on economic expectations. Based on tick-by-tick futures prices on bonds and stock prices, I confirm these seemingly puzzling results for the euro area and provide evidence that they are...

This paper applies linear and neural network-based “thick” models for forecasting inflation based on Phillips–curve formulations in the USA, Japan and the euro area. Thick models represent “trimmed mean” forecasts from several neural network models. They outperform the best performing...

In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence across the board. In particular we find euro area...