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predicts price volatility. We then extend the logic of fragility to investigate two natural extensions: (1) the forecast of …
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This paper examines the predictive power of the U.S. term structure over return volatility in emerging stock markets … show that the U.S. term structure indeed contains predictive information over emerging stock market volatility, even after … volatility compared to the maturity premium component of the yield spread. We also find that the U.S. term structure has gained …
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