This paper applies nonparametric test procedures to test for a shift in the volatility of nominal and real exchange rates for ERM members and nonmembers. The results imply a reduction in volatility for the ERM members, especially during the second half of the period of operation of the ERM. We...

This paper examines some recent techniques designed to draw inferences about the credibility of changes in macroeconomic policy regimes. An alternative two-step approach, based on the decomposition between permanent and transitory components of a "credibility variable" is proposed. The...

This paper provides indirect tests of the hypothesis that exchange rate movements may be largely coterminus with changes in preferences for holding claims on different countries. It is argued that changes in country preferences will be reflected systematically in the price of gold and, hence,...

This paper explores a number of methodological issues that arise in the calculation of equilibrium exchange rates, which are identified in this paper as those real effective exchange rates consistent with macroeconomic equilibrium, i.e., internal and external balance. A partial equilibrium,...

We examine the determinants of capital flows to four developing countries during the 1990s using an explicitly disequilibrium econometric framework in which the supply and demand for capital are not necessarily equal and the actual amount of the flow is determined by the ‘short side’ of the...

We re-examine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from a number of perspectives, using monthly data on the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique for testing present value models, we reject the restrictions imposed upon the data by the forward-looking...

I analyze a data set on the characteristics of 399 US presidential TV ads for seventeen election campaigns, 1952-2016, by modelling their impact on the probability of the candidate favored in each ad winning the presidential election to which the ad relates. Certain emotional variables are found...