In this paper we analyze the dynamics of zero-coupon bond options in a situation in which two open economies plan to enter a currency union in the future. More precisely, we make use of recent theoretical work on the continuous-time dynamics of interest-rate differentials between the economies...

This paper investigates the impact of introducing index futures trading on the volatility of the underlying stock market. We exploit a unique institutional setting in which presumably uninformed individuals are the dominant trader type in the futures markets. This enables us to investigate the...

In this paper we use a state-space model with Markov-switching to detect speculative bubbles in stock-price data. Our two innovations are (1) to adapt this technology to the state-space representation of a well-known present-value stock-price model, and (2) to estimate the model via...

In this paper we develop a unifying Markov-switching GARCH model which enables us (1) to specify complex GARCH equations in two distinct Markov-regimes, and (2) to model GARCH equations of different functional forms across the two Markov-regimes. To give a simple example, our flexible...

Using a Markov-switching GARCH model this paper analyzes the volatility evolution of the greenback's price in gold from after the Civil War until the return to gold convertibility in 1879. The econometric inference associated with our methodology indicates a switch to a regime of low volatility...

We present a new limit theorem for random means: if the sample size is not deterministic but has a negative binomial or geometric distribution, the limit distribution of the normalised random mean is a t-distribution with degrees of freedom depending on the shape parameter of the negative...

The recent introduction of new derivatives with future dividend payments as underlyings allows to construct a direct test of rational bubbles. We suggest a simple, new method to calculate the fundamental value of stock indices. Using this approach, bubbles become observable. We calculate the...

The authors develop a dynamic approach to measuring the evolution of comparative brand premium, an important component of brand equity. A comparative brand premium is defined as the pairwise price difference between two products being identical in every respect but brand. The model is based on...

A fundamental component of inter-temporal consumption-saving and portfolio allocation models is a statistical model of the income process. While income processes are commonly unobservable income flows which evolve in continuous time, observable income data are usually discrete, having been...