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of the system to one comprising inflation and relative prices. This is then estimated in I(1) space. An impulse response … on domestic inflation is moderated. This explains why the depreciation of sterling in 1992 left inflation unchanged. In … contrast, high real import prices in 1974 increased inflation because wage accommodation effects were absent. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005549191
This paper builds a short-term inflation projections (STIP) model for Latvia. The model is designed to forecast highly … Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometric Society Monographs, 31, 371-413.]. We assess the forecast accuracy of …) benchmarks. Across inflation components, the forecast accuracy gains are 20-30% forecasting 3 months ahead and 15-55% forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012805901
In this paper, I apply univariate and vector autoregressive (VAR) models to forecast inflation in Vietnam. To … properties of inflation in Vietnam. Then, I compute the pseudo out-of-sample root mean square error (RMSE) as a measure of … forecasting models from among the different candidates. I find that VAR_m2 is the best monthly model to forecast inflation in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011663290
In this paper, I apply univariate and vector autoregressive (VAR) models to forecast inflation in Vietnam. To … properties of inflation in Vietnam. Then, I compute the pseudo out-of-sample root mean square error (RMSE) as a measure of … forecasting models from among the different candidates. I find that VAR_m2 is the best monthly model to forecast inflation in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606109
This paper provides some test cases, called circuits, for the evaluation of Gaussian likelihood maximization algorithms of the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. Both I(1) and I(2) models are considered. The performance of algorithms is compared first in terms of effectiveness, defined as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011781891
) with a special focus on persistence of real wages, wage and price inflation. The analysis is conducted within a structural … model, as well as the cointegrating properties of the estimated system. Overall, in the long run, wage and price inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867061
We investigate the inflation rate in Colombia in terms of excess money, excess demand, deviations from PPP, and wage … inflation. In contrast to previous results for a group of industrial economias, we find that domestic factors are a far more … powerful influence on inflation than are external factors. We also find evidence of non-linear price behavior in response to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005262997
This paper provides some test cases, called circuits, for the evaluation of Gaussian likelihood maximization algorithms of the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. Both I(1) and I(2) models are considered. The performance of algorithms is compared first in terms of effectiveness, defined as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011995197
Estimation of the I(2) cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is considered. Without further restrictions, estimation of the I(1) model is by reduced-rank regression (Anderson (1951)). Maximum likelihood estimation of I(2) models, on the other hand, always requires iteration. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011755375
Estimation of the I(2) cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is considered. Without further restrictions, estimation of the I(1) model is by reduced-rank regression (Anderson (1951)). Maximum likelihood estimation of I(2) models, on the other hand, always requires iteration. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011654460