The Atlantic bonito rush experienced in Turkey in the Fall of 2005 coincided with the avian influenza food scare that happened exactly at the same time-period in the country. This study examines the reactions of Turkish retail prices to those events. In this research, using time-series...

Article 13 of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture, known as the "Peace Clause," precludes most WTO dispute settlement challenges against a country that is complying with the Agreement's liberalization commitments - until 1 January 2004, when the Peace Clause will expire. This article evaluates the...

Monotonicity of the likelihood ratio for conditioned densities is a common technical assumption in economic models. But we have found no empirical tests for its plausibility. This paper develops such a test based on the theory of order-restricted inference, which is robust with respect to the...

Applying a probabilistic causal approach, we define a class of time series causal models (TSCM) based on stationary Bayesian networks. A TSCM can be seen as a structural VAR identified by the causal relations among the variables. We classify TSCMs into observationally equivalent classes by...

The primary aim of the paper is to place current methodological discussions on empirical modeling contrasting the 'theory first' versus the 'data first' perspectives in the context of a broader methodological framework with a view to constructively appraise them. In particular, the paper focuses...

Applying a probabilistic causal approach, we define a class of time series causal models (TSCM) based on stationary Bayesian networks. A TSCM can be seen as a structural VAR identified by the causal relations among the variables. We classify TSCMs into observationally equivalent classes by...

Default probabilities (PDs) and correlations play a crucial role in the New Basel Capital Accord. In commercial credit risk models they are an important constituent. Yet, modeling and estimation of PDs and correlations is still under active discussion. We show how the Basel II one factor model...

In this paper we focus on the analysis of the effect of prediction and estimation risk on the loss distribution, risk measures and economic capital. When variables for the determination of probability of default and loss distribution have to be predicted because they are not available at the...

The purpose of this paper is to measure the potential impact of business-sector concentration on economic capital for loan portfolios and to explore a tractable model for its measurement. The empirical part evaluates the increase in economic capital in a multi-factor asset value model for...

This paper deals with a special type of voluntary approach to protect the environment, for example, that we would like to term voluntary commitment. Its major characteristic is that it represents a unilateral declaration without a decisively active role of regulators. In other words, voluntary...