This paper investigates the medium-term behavior of output following banking crises, and its association with pre- and post-crisis conditions and policies. We find that output tends to be depressed substantially following banking crises, with no rebound to the precrisis trend. However, growth...

We analyze trade dynamics following past episodes of financial crises. Using an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009, we find that there is a sharp decline in a country’s imports in the year following a crisis-19 percent, on average-and this decline is persistent,...

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize...

The study documents evidence of a ""quality effect"" of financial liberalization on allocative efficiency, which is measured by the dispersion in Tobin''s Q across firms. Based on a simple model, the authors predict that financial liberalization, by equalizing access to credit, reduces the...

The central challenges facing the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia as they work to catch up to advanced European Union (EU) income levels are discussed in this new book. Focusing on the region’s growth performance, and outlining two growth...

This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that...

Recoveries that occur in the absence of credit growth are often dubbed miracles and named after mythical creatures. Yet these are not rare animals, and are not always miracles. About one out of five recoveries is "creditless", and average growth during these episodes is about a third lower than...

This paper analyzes the effects of the current trade conflict on developing Asia using the Asian Development Bank's Multiregional Input - Output Table (MRIOT), allowing us to calculate the impact on individual countries and on sectors within countries. The analysis estimates the direct impact on...

SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum, the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) took the opportunity of the first anniversary of this new institution to organise a joint conference in Berlin on 8-9 November 2011. The purpose of this event was...

We examine the evolution of infrastructure, and the impact of infrastructure investment, in middleincome countries (MICs). We document how different types of infrastructure stocks, as well as infrastructure investment, vary with the level of development and growth performance. We then use the...