of the probability of a horse winning - longshots are overbet, while favorites are underbet. Neoclassical explanations of … misperceptions of probability drive the favorite-longshot bias, as suggested by Prospect Theory. …

of the probability of a horse winning—longshots are overbet, while favorites are underbet. Neoclassical explanations of … misperceptions of probability drive the favorite-longshot bias, as suggested by Prospect Theory. …

whether Google Trends provides significant forecasting improvements over models without search data. Second, we assess whether … a high-frequency variable (weekly Google Trends) is more useful for accurate forecasting than a low-frequency variable … arrivals, is useful for predicting the actual number of tourist arrivals. The MIDAS forecasting model that employs weekly …

advantage of common stochastic trends improves forecasting performance over a stationary single-factor model. The common …