Using Merton's (1974) structural model corporate debt default, this paper argues that correlation between firm level corporate bond yield changes and stock returns should be informative about firm level default risk of this corporate debt. In particular, as the absolute value of the correlation...

We incorporate structural modellers into the economy they model. Using the traditional moment-matching method, they ignore policy feedback and estimate parameters using a structural model that treats policy changes as zero probability (or exogenous) "counterfactuals." Estimation bias occurs...

We discuss the literature on the shift from stakeholder to shareholder finance behind the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Traditional banks generally maximized stakeholder value (STV). But before the GFC also many of them started maximizing shareholder value (SHV). Moving from STV to SHV often...

We find that business cycles drive productive economic churn. During recessions, firms with high previous abnormal investment scale back while firms with low abnormal investment scale up. These findings are consistent with an improvement in investment efficiency over the business cycle. Our...

Yes, they can! Machine learning models that exploit big data identify leverage determinants and predict leverage better than classical methods. By allowing for nonlinearities and complex interactions, machine learning boosts the out-of-sample R-squared from 36% to 56% over linear methods such as...

In this paper, we examine the evolution of the S&P500 returns volatility around market crashes using a Markov-Switching model. We find that volatility typically switches into the high volatility state well before a crash and remains in the high state for a considerable period of time after the...

In recent years, there has been a slow but steady change in ownership structures and corporate governance in Japan. As a result of economic stagnation, relations between companies characterised by cross-shareholdings and the main-bank system have become less rigid and institutional investors...

In this study we develop and demonstrate a powerful and flexible forward-looking portfolio simulation methodology for assessing the correlated impacts of market risk, and private sector, sovereign and inter-bank default risk on both individual banks (i.e. 28 of the largest Brazilian banks) and...

Several studies indicate that stock option plans are becoming more and more a substantial part of compensation schemes in U.S. companies. This paper shows the tax implications and accounting rules for stock option plans. By comparison of the tax and accounting rules for different compensation...

We study the behavior of experimental subjects who have to make a sequence of risky investment decisions in the presence of network externalities. Subjects follow a simple heuristic – investing after positive experiences and reducing their propensity to invest after a failure. This result...