In this paper, using estimating function approach, a new optimal volatility estimator is introduced, and, based on the recursive form of the estimator, a data-driven generalized EWMA model for VaR forecast is proposed. An appropriate data-driven model for volatility is identified by the...

Producers have a wide variety of risk management instruments available. How do producers make a choice of risk management instruments? Using the recently developed choice bracketing framework, we examine what risk management strategies producers use and identify the factors that drive their risk...

Recent research has provided mixed results regarding the presence of a time-varying risk premium in agricultural futures markets. In this paper we test for the presence of a time-varying risk premium and market efficiency focusing on the properties of the underlying data. Specifically, we...

Estimation of liquidity costs in agricultural futures markets is challenging because bid-askspreads are usually not observed. Spread estimators that use transaction data are available,but little agreement exists on their relative accuracy and performance. We evaluate fourconventional and a...

Liquidity costs in futures markets are not observed directly because bids and offers occur in an open outcry pit and are not recorded. Traditional estimation of these costs has focused on bidask spreads using transaction prices. However, the bid-ask spread only captures the tightness of the...