before, students were used as role-players, and others provided forecasts using their judgement. When averaged across eight … predictions) than 357 forecasts by students who used their unaided judgement (32%). Sixty-two percent of 105 simulated …

reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …

reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat native … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …

methods including extrapolation, quantitative analogies, rule-based forecasting, and causal methods. Otherwise, use methods … that structure judgement including surveys of intentions and expectations, judgmental bootstrapping, structured analogies …, there are opportunities to improve efficiency by adopting these forecasting practices. …

reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …

-free communication is only sufficient for reaching a consensus. We apply our model to economic forecasting, providing an alternative …-free communication is a necessary and sufficient condition for a consensus to emerge. However, when communication is public, ambiguity …