Inflation targeting makes the Central Bank's conditional inflation forecast the operational target for monetary policy. Successful inflation targeting requires knowing the transmission mechanisms to inflation from shocks as well as instruments. The econometric implications are that the...

The notions of instrument, intermediate target and final target are defined in the context of the cointegrated VAR. A target variable is said to be controllable if it can be made stationary around a desired target value by using the instrument. This can be expressed as a condition on the...

Inflation targeting requires inflation forecasts, yet most models in the literature are either theoretical or calibrated. The motivation for this paper is therefore threefold: We seek to test and implement an econometric model forforecasting inflation in Norway–one economy recently opting for...

This paper seeks to assess comovements and heterogeneity in the euro area by fitting a nonstationary dynamic factor model (Bai and Ng, 2004), augmented with a structural factor setup (Forni and Reichlin, 1998), to a large set of euro-area macroeconomic variables observed between 1982 and 2003....

We use a novel disaggregate sectoral euro area dataset with a regional breakdown that allows explicit estimation of the sectoral component of price changes (rather than interpreting the idiosyncratic component as sectoral as done in other papers). Employing a new method to extract factors from...

This paper describes a methodology to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypotheses and to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian:...

This paper assesses the global spillovers from identified US monetary policy shocks in a global VAR model. US monetary policy generates sizable output spillovers to the rest of the world, which are larger than the domestic effects in the US for many economies. The magnitude of spillovers depends...

We analyse the pass-through of monetary policy measures to lending rates to firms and households in the euro area using a unique bank-level dataset. Bank balance sheet characteristics such as the capital ratio and the exposure to sovereign debt are responsible for the heterogeneity of...

We use a non-linear factor-augmented vector-autoregressive model to evaluate international effects of an unexpected decrease in euro area policy rates. Given the current environment of ultra low or negative interest rates, we especially focus on potential differences in the transmission of the...

Official statistics measuring the cost of living are known to suffer from several biases because they often do not accurately capture substitution patterns, product entry/exit, and preference shifts. In particular, the latter two biases have been shown to be large on average. This paper shows...