We generalize the score test for time-varying copula parameters proposed by [Abegaz & Naik-Nimbalkar, 2008] to a setting where more than one-parametric copulas can be tested for time variation in at least one parameter. In a next step we model the daily log returns of the Commerzbank stock using...

Financial market volatility is an important element when setting up port- folio management strategies, option pricing and market regulation. The Subprime crisis affected all markets around the world. Daily data of twelve stock indexes for the period of October 1999 to June 2011 are studied using...

Financial markets react to major political events. The two nuclear tests conducted by North Korea in 2006 and 2009 were a sober confirmation of the nuclear weapon capacity of this state with the concomitant potential security threat this posed for the stability of the greater region. We examine...

In the literature the effects of weather on electricity sales are well-documented. However, studies that have investigated the impact of weather on electricity prices are still scarce (e.g. Knittel and Roberts, 2005), partly because the wholesale power markets have only recently been...

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates their linkages in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main...

This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the long-term sovereign bond spread of Italy relative to Germany. After collecting data on relevant fiscal policy announcements, we perform an econometric comparative analysis between the three...

We first consider an extension of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model that allows for a more flexible weighting of financial squared-returns for the filtering of volatility. The parameter for the squared-return in the GARCH model is time- varying with an...

Abstract Companies in business and industry often make very different demands on statistical software packages, like flexibility concerning customized solutions, possibility of integrating non-standard stochastic approaches, use to validated applications, user-friendly interface, moderate costs,...

In this paper, we examine the characteristics of market opening news and its impact on the estimated coefficients of the conditional volatility models of the GARCH class. We find that the differences between the opening price of one day and the closing price of the day before have different...

In the last decades a liberalization of the electric market has started; prices are now determined on the basis of contracts on regular markets and their behaviour is mainly driven by usual supply and demand forces. A large body of literature has been developed in order to analyze and forecast...