An alternative derivation of the yield curve based on entropy or the loss of information as it is communicated through time is introduced. Given this focus on entropy growth in communication the Shannon entropy will be utilized. Additionally, Shannon entropy's close relationship to the...

This paper examines whether rare disaster can predict stock returns. We construct an aggregate rare disaster index by imposing the partial least square (PLS) approach on six news-implied rare disaster proxies of Manela and Moreira (2017). Our disaster measure strongly predicts monthly excess...

We characterize when physical probabilities, marginal utilities, and the discount rate can be recovered from observed state prices for several future time periods. We make no assumptions of the probability distribution, thus generalizing the time-homogeneous stationary model of Ross (2015)....

Concepts from information theory are utilized to study the effects of entropy on the behavior of finance systems and variables of interest. From this analysis, a common entropic measure was derived that determines the structure and evolution of a wide variety of financial topologies. This...

While a wide variety of hypotheses have been offered to explain the anomalous market phenomena known as a “Flash Crash”, there is as of yet no consensus among financial experts as to the sources of these sudden market collapses. In contrast to the behavior expected from standard financial...

We propose an extension of standard asymmetric volatility models in the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) class that admits conditional non-Gaussianities in a tractable fashion. Our "bad environment-good environment" (BEGE) model utilizes two gamma-distributed...

We apply a reduced-rank approach to reduce a large number of observable factors to a few parsimonious ones. Out of 70 factor proxies, we find that the best five combinations seem adequate and outperform the Fama-French (2015) five factors for pricing industry portfolios as expected. However,...

We use a new method to estimate ex ante higher order moments of stock market returns from option prices. Even and odd number higher order moments are strongly negatively correlated, creating periods where the return distribution is riskier because it is more left-skewed and fat tailed. The...

We develop a novel recovery theorem based on no-arbitrage principles. Our Arbitrage-Based Recovery Theorem does not require assuming time homogeneity of either the physical probabilities, the Arrow-Debreu prices, or the stochastic discount factor; and it requires the observation of Arrow-Debreu...