We find that high macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with greater accumulation of physical capital, despite a reduction in investment and valuations. To reconcile this puzzling evidence, we show that uncertainty predicts lower depreciation and utilization of existing capital, which...

This study provides general methods to measure and characterize the welfare costs of long-run consumption uncertainty with Epstein and Zin (1989) preferences. I find that long-run uncertainty can create significant welfare costs even when risk aversion is moderate and the short-run consumption...

We describe how networks based on information theory can help measure and visualize systemic risk, enhance diversification, and help price assets. To do this, we first define a distance measure based on the mutual information between asset pairs and use this measure in the construction of...

We develop a general equilibrium model in which heterogeneous entrepreneurs produce output in the presence of financing constraints. We model granular uncertainty as the shocks that affect the uncertainty in future idiosyncratic productivity without changing the cross-sectional dispersion of...

We introduce an information-based fragility measure for GMM models that are potentially misspecified and unstable. A large fragility measure signifies a GMM model's lack of internal refutability (weak power of specification tests) and external validity (poor out-of-sample fit). The fragility of...

Evidence suggests that human psychology plays a role in individuals' financial decisions, with economically meaningful consequences observed even at the aggregate market level. This chapter considers many instances whereby human mood induced by exogenous factors is associated with economically...

I connect interest rates, risk premia and welfare costs of long-run consumption uncertainty in a setting with Epstein and Zin (1989) preferences. I find that long-run uncertainty can create significant welfare costs even when risk aversion is moderate and the short-run consumption volatility...

As defined contribution (DC) plans have grown and have increasingly become the primary retirement savings vehicle, asset allocators are increasingly interested in incorporating illiquid private assets in these retirement funds to offer participants access to investment portfolios and...

In RBC models, “disaster risk shocks” reproduce countercyclical risk premia but generate an increase in consumption along the recession and asset price fall, through their effects on agents' preferences (Gourio, 2012). This paper offers a solution to this puzzle by developing a New Keynesian...