Chudik, Alexander; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - 2020
Covid-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility … factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth forecast revisions of the IMF in 2020Q … observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long …