To celebrate its 80th anniversary DIW Berlin organised on 8 and 9 December 2005 a conference centred on two themes. The first dealt with the methods and performance of forecasting. The second discussed scenarios for the future of Europe and its major economies. A selection of the contributions...

Bivariate SVAR models employing long-run identifying restrictions are often used to investigate the source of business cycle fluctuations. Their advantage is the simplicity in use and interpretation. However, their low dimension may also lead to a failure of the identification procedure, with...

Bei der Klassifizierung der deutschen Konjunkturzyklen stehen die Daten des ifo Konjunkturtests der Verwendung der Daten der Vierteljählichen Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung (VGR) nur wenig nach. Als Beurteilungsmaßstab dienten die Ergebnisse einer multivariaten Diskriminanzanalyse mit...