Household over-indebtedness has increased worldwide. This study investigates one possible reason for this increase: biased income expectations. Thereby, we refer to the "permanent income hypothesis", which predicts that individuals borrow more today if they expect a higher income in the future....

Household indebtedness is rising worldwide. This study investigates one possible driver of this increase that is rooted in the theory of permanent income: high income expectations. We collect data from an emerging country, Thailand, as (over-) indebtedness in markets with incomplete financial...

This study investigates the role of risk attitudes and financial expectations in households’ borrowing behaviour. The central research question is whether risk aversion and optimistic expectations provide additional information beyond the main economic and sociodemographic characteristics in...

We survey retail investors at an online bank to study beliefs about the autocorrelation of aggregate stock returns, and how these beliefs shape investment decisions measured in administrative account data. Individuals' beliefs exhibit substantial heterogeneity and predict trading responses to...

We survey retail investors at an online bank to study beliefs about the autocorrelation of aggregate stock returns, and how these beliefs shape investment decisions measured in administrative account data. Individuals' beliefs exhibit substantial heterogeneity and predict trading responses to...

We investigate a novel determinant of financial distress, namely individuals' self-efficacy, or belief that their actions can influence the future. Individuals with high self-efficacy are more likely to take precautions that mitigate adverse financial shocks. They are subsequently less likely to...

Theoretical studies suggest that unexpected changes in future mortality and survival probabilities (stochastic mortality) are important determinants of individuals’ decisions about consumption, saving, asset allocation, and retirement timing. Using data on subjective survival expectations...

Theoretical studies suggest that unexpected changes in future survival probabilities (longevity risk) are important determinants of individuals' decisions about consumption, saving, asset allocation, and retirement timing. This study provides empirical evidence that individuals are indeed aware...

We provide evidence of individuals' awareness of longevity risk (the uncertainty about future survival probabilities) based on subjective survival expectations elicited in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and matching data on longevity risk from the Human Mortality...

We survey a representative sample of US households to study how exposure to the COVID-19 stock market crash affects expectations and planned behavior. Wealth shocks are associated with upward adjustments of expectations about retirement age, desired working hours, and household debt, but have...